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TOL

TOL

Medium conviction

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · NYSE

$13.8B mkt cap

Brief updated Jun 15, 2026

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stands as a prominent luxury homebuilder operating across the United States. The company, along with its various divisions, specializes in the design, construction, marketing, sale, and financing of upscale detached and attached residences within master-planned communities.

Decifer Research·Data summary

TOL is a medium-conviction name in Consumer Cyclical

TOL sits at the intersection of key themes currently active in the market. The scoring engine rates it medium based on how well the active market forces line up with its business, plus available fundamental data. Financial metrics and analyst consensus provide additional context.

Why now

The market forces active right now are aligned with the company's core business exposure. The timing reflects the intersection of theme strength and available catalyst data.

Key risks

Data availability limits full scoring across all dimensions. Market forces can reverse rapidly; theme exposure does not guarantee the price follows. Fundamental valuation data may not reflect the most recent quarterly results.

What to watch

Monitor conviction score changes, especially the macro and analyst dimensions. Earnings guidance updates and analyst consensus shifts are the primary near-term catalysts.

37Medium conviction Conviction
macro
25/25
analyst
11/38
momentum
15/20
forward catalyst
0/15
valuation
8/23
highs
3/12
news catalyst
3/12
options flow
0/12
peer network
0/8
counter thesis
0/3
Key financials
Revenue growth (YoY)1797.0%
Gross margin2489.0%
Operating margin1464.0%
Net margin1166.0%
P/E ratio10.9x
Return on equity1549.0%
FCF yield884.0%
Debt / equity0.3x
EV / sales1.4x
Valuation
Analyst consensusHOLD
DCF fair value$199
Next EPS estimate$5.58
Macro context
Bond yields falling, tailwind for growth

US Equity Futures Mostly Lower Pre-Bell Amid Continued Tech Stock Sell-Off, US-Iran War Entering Fourth Month

The US-Iran war is entering its fourth month, and the continued conflict is contributing to a sell-off in tech stocks, which is affecting US equity futures. This prolonged conflict poses significant risks to global markets and stability.

Jun 5, 2026

US Equity Futures Mostly Lower Pre-Bell Amid Continued Tech Stock Sell-Off, US-Iran War Entering Fourth Month

The US-Iran war has entered its fourth month, contributing to a sell-off in tech stocks and weighing on US equity futures, which are mostly lower pre-bell. This ongoing conflict poses significant risks to global stability and markets.

Jun 5, 2026

Shares of specialty retail companies are trading higher as oil prices and bond yields retreat amid optimism for a lasting U.S.-Iran peace agreement, which may lead to cheaper borrowing for consumers.

A potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement is driving optimism, leading to lower oil prices and bond yields, which could result in cheaper borrowing for consumers and boost specialty retail companies. This development may have broader implications for the macro environment, including reduced geopolitical risk and increased consumer spending.

Jun 9, 2026

Dow Jones Futures Fall On Iran News After Market Whipsaws; CPI Inflation On Tap

Rising tensions with Iran have led to market volatility, with Dow Jones futures falling, and investors are also awaiting the release of CPI inflation data, which could impact market direction. This escalation and upcoming data release have the potential to significantly affect market sentiment and asset prices.

Jun 9, 2026

Analyst intelligence
21 Buy22 Hold2 Sell
Earnings intelligence

Earnings surprises

+5.4%

2026-05

+6.8%

2026-02

-6.2%

2025-12

+3.6%

2025-08

+24.6%

2025-05

Recent updates
currency interventionToday

The US is using euros to buy yen, a move that strategists believe is aimed at avoiding a weaker dollar, indicating potential currency market intervention by the US to influence exchange rates.

geopolitical escalationToday

Peter Schiff highlights Trump's low approval ratings amidst soaring inflation and the possibility of a war with Iran, which could lead to impeachment, impacting market sentiment and geopolitical stability.

pmi dataToday

China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July came in at 50.9, missing the estimated 51.9 and lower than the previous month's 51.7, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity. This could have implications for global economic growth and trade.

geopolitical escalationYesterday

Peter Schiff highlights Trump's low approval ratings amidst soaring inflation and the possibility of a war with Iran, which could lead to impeachment, impacting market sentiment and geopolitical stability.

pmi dataYesterday

China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July came in at 50.9, missing the estimated 51.9 and lower than the previous month's 51.7, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity. This could have implications for global economic growth and trade.

Generated Mon, 15 Jun 2026 05:04:16 GMT by Decifer intelligence engine. For informational purposes only — not investment advice. Decifer Intelligence Hub.